PHOENIX MARKET PULSE - MARKET UPDATE

The Phoenix Market Runs on Four Different Tracks Right Now

Entry-level prices have softened while luxury climbed. Cromford and ARMLS data for June 2026 show exactly where buyers and sellers stand — and it depends entirely on which segment you are in.

JUNE 2026 - Data: ARMLS STAT and Cromford Associates

The Phoenix real estate market update for June 2026 does not tell one story — it tells four, split by price tier. While the metro-wide median sale price sits at $457,500, up just $7,500 from a year ago, the 12-month moving average price-per-square-foot data from Cromford Associates and ARMLS reveals a sharp divergence depending on which segment you are operating in. Entry-level sellers anchored to 2022 assumptions and luxury sellers sitting on 17% gains are not living in the same market. Buyers in the West Valley have measurably more leverage than the metro-wide headlines suggest. Understanding which of the four tracks you are on is not optional — it changes your pricing, your timing, and your negotiating position entirely.

Are Phoenix home prices going up or down in 2026?

Not all Phoenix home prices are moving in the same direction in 2026 — and the gap between segments has widened since January 2023. Homes listed under $500,000 have seen a 7% decline in the 12-month moving average price per square foot over the past 3.5 years. That decline is not widely known among sellers in that tier, and it shows up in extended days on market for listings priced to last year's comps. The $500,000-to-$1,000,000 segment declined 1.5% — essentially flat, which is meaningfully different from "gaining." Above $1,000,000 the direction reverses sharply: the $1M-to-$3M range gained 4% in the same period, and homes above $3,000,000 are up 17%. The driver above $1M is different from the entry-level story — higher-priced homes are more concentrated in supply-constrained communities like Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Fountain Hills where the Cromford Market Index runs well above 130. Metro averages blend all four of these realities into a single number that accurately describes none of them.

Source: Cromford Associates — 12-month moving average $/SF by list price tier, Greater Phoenix residential resale, as of June 20, 2026.

What is happening with home prices in the West Valley right now?

West Valley pricing tells a buyer-friendly story that the metro-wide CMI numbers do not fully communicate on their own. The Cromford Market Index data for June 18, 2026 shows Goodyear at 81.2, Surprise at 75.2, and Buckeye at 55.4 — all well below the 90 threshold that marks a balanced market. A CMI below 90 means demand relative to supply has shifted in favor of buyers, giving them measurably more room to negotiate on price and terms than metro-wide headlines suggest. Avondale at 108.3 and Peoria at 94.9 are in or just above the balanced range. Glendale at 116.7 is the only traditional West Valley city still firmly in seller territory, though it dropped 4 points this month. For sellers in the West Valley communities running CMIs below 90, the combination of below-average CMI and softening entry-level $/SF means the pricing strategy that worked in 2022 will produce longer days on market and more price reductions today. The data does not favor aggressive list pricing in this tier and this geography right now — correct pricing on day one is the protection.

Which Phoenix cities favor sellers or buyers in June 2026?

The Cromford Market Index for June 18, 2026 shows nine metro cities in seller territory above 110, three in the balanced range between 90 and 110, and six in buyer territory below 90. Fountain Hills leads the metro at 179.0, with a 15% monthly jump driven in part by summer listing withdrawals tightening supply — a seasonal pattern Cromford has noted reduces available inventory without necessarily reflecting fundamental demand strength. Paradise Valley moved the most dramatically, up 17% to 129.9. Tempe had the sharpest single-month decline of any city, down 18% to 105.4, moving from a strong seller market to the edge of balanced in four weeks. The West Valley stands out as the most buyer-friendly region in the metro: Goodyear, Surprise, Buckeye, San Tan Valley, Maricopa, and Queen Creek are all running CMIs below 82, and Cromford notes that the least expensive areas are seeing only modest improvement in the supply-demand balance.

CMI above 110 = seller market. CMI 90-110 = balanced. CMI below 90 = buyer market. Source: Cromford Associates, June 18, 2026.

Where are Phoenix home prices headed over the next 30 days?

Pending listings are pointing upward: the average list price per square foot across ARMLS pending listings stood at $322.10 on June 15, up 1.4% from May 15, suggesting closed prices may rise over the next four to six weeks. Cromford's mid-point forecast for average monthly sales $/SF on July 15 is $307.78 — up 2.1% from the June 15 reading of $301.53 — with a 90% confidence range of $301.62 to $313.94. That said, seasonal patterns typically push Q3 prices lower, and the number of ultra-luxury closings between now and mid-July could move the average noticeably in either direction. Pre-foreclosure activity now accounts for 2.2% of pending listings, up slightly from May — this remains low by historical standards, but the slow upward trend warrants attention through the fall, particularly in the more affordability-stressed western communities where CMIs are already running below 90.

Forecast source: Cromford Associates mid-month update. 90% confidence range July 15: $301.62 to $313.94.

Market data sourced from Cromford Associates and the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS). Data as of June 15-20, 2026. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed. Rudy Coronel is a licensed real estate agent with Realty ONE Group in Arizona.