March 2026 was the strongest sales month since May 2023. Resale closings are up 7% year-over-year while new home market share hit its lowest point since June 2022. Here is what the data means for buyers and sellers in the Phoenix metro right now.
PHOENIX MARKET PULSE — MARKET UPDATE
Resale Is Outperforming New Construction. Here's What March Tells Us.
The strongest sales month since May 2023 — but the headline isn't the real story.
April 8, 2026 · Data: ARMLS STAT + Cromford® Associates
March 2026 closed out as the strongest sales month the Phoenix metro has seen since May 2023. But the headline number isn't the real story. The real story is what's happening underneath it — and where it's happening.
Everyone's looking at prices, but the number that actually matters right now is what's happening under the surface: where buyers are moving, where they're not, and what that means if you're thinking about selling or buying in the next 90 days.
Section 01
Resale Is Winning. New Construction Isn't.
Resale closings in Maricopa County were up 7.1% year-over-year in March. Under-contract activity hit its highest level for the month of March in three years, signaling that buyers are actively engaging with the market — not sitting on the sidelines.
New construction is a different picture entirely. New home closings dropped 21% on a per-day basis compared to March 2025. New home market share fell to 17.1% — the lowest it's been since June 2022. Builders have been quietly cutting prices and offering rate buy-downs for months.
For resale sellers who are priced and positioned correctly, this is meaningful. The competition from new construction — which was brutal in 2022 and 2023 — is softening in ways that don't show up in the headline numbers.
Sales Volume by City — March 2026 vs. March 2025
Single-family and condo/townhouse, Maricopa County
March 2026 March 2025
Source: ARMLS — Data for March 2026, Published April 6, 2026
Section 02
What Buyers Are Responding To
Mortgage rates dropped from above 7% this time last year to the 6.1%–6.46% range in March 2026. That's not a dramatic shift on paper, but in terms of monthly payment and qualifying power, it's given buyers measurable relief. The result is activity — not frenzy, but real, deliberate movement.
The April forecast shows slight price softening — average around $604K, median around $445K — which reflects normal seasonal adjustment, not a trend reversal. If you're a buyer waiting for prices to drop while activity rises, you may be reading this market backwards.
Average vs. Median Sales Price — Mar 2025 to Apr 2026 Forecast
Greater Phoenix Metro · $/home
Source: ARMLS STAT — Data for March 2026, Published April 6, 2026
Section 03
What the CMI Is Telling Us by City
The Cromford Market Index as of April 2, 2026 shows 10 of 18 Phoenix metro cities in seller's market territory, with 12 cities moving in a direction favorable to sellers week-over-week. The West Valley tells a nuanced story — Goodyear jumped 20% in a single month, while Surprise and Buckeye remain buyer's markets but are trending upward.
Where you are in the Valley matters more than what the county-level headline says. A seller in Goodyear is in a very different position than a seller in Buckeye right now.
Cromford® Market Index — April 2, 2026
18 largest cities · CMI above 110 = Seller's Market · 90–110 = Balanced · Below 90 = Buyer's Market
| # |
City |
CMI Now |
Change |
Last Month |
Market |
| 1 |
Chandler |
154.5 |
+4% |
148.4 |
Seller |
| 2 |
Fountain Hills |
146.4 |
+9% |
134.5 |
Seller |
| 3 |
Tempe |
128.5 |
+12% |
114.7 |
Seller |
| 4 |
Phoenix |
127.7 |
-2% |
129.7 |
Seller |
| 5 |
Glendale |
124.8 |
+6% |
117.3 |
Seller |
| 6 |
Gilbert |
123.4 |
-10% |
136.9 |
Seller |
| 7 |
Scottsdale |
121.6 |
+1% |
120.1 |
Seller |
| 8 |
Paradise Valley |
118.3 |
+1% |
117.5 |
Seller |
| 9 |
Mesa |
116.1 |
-3% |
119.5 |
Seller |
| 10 |
Avondale |
112.2 |
+7% |
105.0 |
Seller |
| 11 |
Cave Creek |
108.4 |
-10% |
120.0 |
Balanced |
| 12 |
Peoria |
101.4 |
-3% |
104.3 |
Balanced |
| 13 |
Goodyear ⚡ |
83.2 |
+20% |
69.5 |
Buyer |
| 14 |
Surprise |
69.9 |
+7% |
65.3 |
Buyer |
| 15 |
Queen Creek |
66.2 |
+2% |
65.2 |
Buyer |
| 16 |
San Tan Valley |
65.7 |
-6% |
69.7 |
Buyer |
| 17 |
Maricopa |
57.9 |
+11% |
52.0 |
Buyer |
| 18 |
Buckeye |
53.1 |
+4% |
51.2 |
Buyer |
Source: Cromford® Associates LLC — April 2, 2026
Section 04
The Bottom Line — Supply and Absorption
Month of supply dropped to 3.34 — down 24% from last month. The absorption rate climbed to 29.92%, up 32% from February. Those two numbers together mean homes are moving faster relative to available supply than they were 30 days ago.
March's numbers confirm the Phoenix market is more active than 12 months ago, resale is winning over new construction, and buyers are moving — deliberately, not urgently. The window for sellers is open. It doesn't stay open forever.
Months of Supply
3.34
Down 24.4% from last month (4.42). Down 7.7% year-over-year.
|
Absorption Rate
29.9%
Up 32.2% from last month (22.6%). Up 8.4% year-over-year.
|
Active Listings
25,265
Essentially flat MoM (-0.03%). Up 0.75% year-over-year.
|
Under Contract
9,237
Up 8.6% from last month. Up 8.1% year-over-year. 3-year March high.
|
ARMLS STAT Summary — March 2026
Key metrics vs. prior periods
| Metric |
Current |
1M Prior |
12M Prior |
MoM |
YoY |
| Sold Listings |
7,560 |
5,721 |
6,923 |
+32.1% |
+9.2% |
| Avg $/SF (Sold) |
$284.00 |
$283.05 |
$286.77 |
+0.3% |
-1.0% |
| Median $/SF (Sold) |
$254.75 |
$254.38 |
$262.67 |
+0.1% |
-3.0% |
| New Listings |
10,915 |
9,822 |
11,227 |
+11.1% |
-2.8% |
| Avg DOM |
85 days |
91 days |
79 days |
-6.6% |
+7.6% |
| Median DOM |
55 days |
67 days |
53 days |
-17.9% |
+3.8% |
| Median Sale Price |
$455,000 |
$450,000 |
$455,000 |
+1.1% |
0.0% |
| Avg Sale Price |
$637,922 |
$630,397 |
$623,449 |
+1.2% |
+2.3% |
Source: ARMLS STAT — Data for March 2026, Published April 6, 2026. © 2026 ARMLS
What this means depending on where you stand
If you're a seller: The CMI is moving in your favor in 12 of 18 cities. New construction competition is at a multi-year low. The absorption rate is rising. Pricing correctly matters more than ever — buyers are deliberate, not desperate.
If you're a buyer: Rates are lower than a year ago, inventory is stable, and you're not in a frenzy. But the window of leverage in buyer's market cities like Buckeye and Surprise is narrowing. Goodyear is already moving.
If you're watching: Waiting for prices to fall while absorption rises and supply tightens is a bet that's been wrong for three months running.
Also worth noting
Review Your Coverage
When home prices shift, your rebuild cost estimate can drift with them. If your homeowners policy hasn't been reviewed since your last renewal, it's worth a second look — especially with carrier changes across Arizona this year.
📞 602-767-3133
✉️ rudy@elysiumins.com
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— Rudy Coronel · rudy@rudycoronel.com · (623) 282-8877
© 2026 Rudy Coronel · Realty One Group · Data sources: ARMLS STAT, Cromford® Associates LLC